LONG a favourite word for weather forecasters, 'changeable' is locking itself in as the best way to assess the Australian truck market, especially in the wake of the latest sales figures for November.
While the overall result shows an increase year-on-year, a closer look reveals the devil is indeed in the detail.
Yes, the overall result for November was higher, 4,322 this year compared to 4,224 in 2023, but the 2024 number includes 229 units for LDV and Peugeot (228 for LDV, just one vehicle for Peugeot), that were not included in the previous year's figures.
So, comparing apples with apples, there is actually a slight market contraction year-on-year, although, to be fair, the truck market remains sufficiently healthy that a new sales record is possible this year, even discounting the recently added LDV and Peugeot data.
Break it down further, and the numbers conspire to confound, with market leaders Isuzu (overall and Medium and Light Duty segments) and Kenworth, selling more this year (Isuzu 1,152/1,145) or at least remaining solid (Kenworth 338/338).
Unfortunately, for other brands, this spells bad news, with Hino (514/456), Fuso (381/347), Volvo (305/218) and Mercedes Benz (203/140) among the many brands to go backwards year-on-year.
While the ongoing successes of Isuzu and Kenworth are easier to describe, more puzzling are the decreases for the other major players, raising the possibility of reducing demand for new trucks in a tightening economic climate.
Tony McMullan, CEO of the Truck Industry Council (TIC), the peak body for on-road heavy vehicles in Australia, acknowledged the changeable nature of the results, although he said the Heavy and Medium Duty segments remain strong.
"Looking at the numbers holistically, heavy vehicle sales this year are tracking comfortably above those of 2023, Mr McMullan said.
"However, in reality sales are only slightly ahead of those of last year when corrected for LDV and Peugeot.
"Heavy and Medium truck sales remain solid, however Light Duty truck sales continue to slow noticeably over 2023 results," Mr McMullan said.
Despite the overall segment figures remaining 'strong', analysis shows the Heavy Duty sales dropped from 1,607 in 2023 to 1.387, with Hino the only manufacturer to increase its sales (57/71) while Kenworth retained its market dominance (338/338), even perennial favourite Isuzu lost ground (239/225).
Volvo's slow decline from previous segment leadership continued (289/215), with no other brand able to even retain its 2023 levels of sales, including the otherwise resurgent Scania (138/99) and Mack sales dropped by over 30% (98/62).
Similarly in the Medium Duty segment, only third placed Fuso (113/78) and Hyundai (10/12) improved their results, if not their rankings, as the overall segment shrank (755/703), again, market leader Isuzu saw its sales fall from 372 to 323, while Hino remained solidly second, but with marginally reduced numbers (233/222).
In the Light Duty segment, the overall result was also lower, (1,294/1,255), the 2024 result falls even lower when the 19 LDV sales are removed, for fair comparison, making it 1,294/1,236 year-on-year.
Isuzu retained its segment leadership with 604 units, up from 534 in 2023, with FIAT (43/54), Renault (16/54), Volkswagen (9/16), Ford (3/10) and Foton Mobility (5/6) also recording increases, however major players Fuso (228/180), Hino (224/163) and Mercedes-Benz (85/35) all saw their year-on-year numbers decrease.
With manufacturers notoriously tight-lipped when asked about forward orders and supply chain issues, it is unclear what the true cause of the market contraction is, however recent economic data shows the national economy stagnating, although not actually in recession.
What impact this will have on future deliveries remains to be seen, and Tony McMullan remains upbeat in his assessment of the truck market.
“With just December sales remaining, we are looking at potentially breaking the 50,000 mark for new heavy vehicle sales in Australia for the first time ever," Mr McMullan said.
"Of course, this will include the sales for LDV and Peugeot brands that TIC has not had access to in previous years, however, even if these brands are excluded from the 2024 sales tally, the market is tracking 1.5 percent above 2023 results at the end of November.
"There is the real possibility that the all-time sales record set in 2023 will be broken this year, irrespective of the inclusion of these two brands.”
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